Ethiopia’s prime minister won a Nobel Peace Prize for making peace with Eritrea. Now the former allies could go to war

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for making peace with neighboring Eritrea. A year later, their armies joined forces against Tigrayan fighters in northern Ethiopia. Now the alliance has unraveled, raising fears of war between the former allies.

The confrontation threatens a region still recovering from the 2020-2022 war, which caused an estimated 500,000 civilian deaths through violence, famine and collapsed health services, according to researchers at Ghent University in Belgium.

A wider struggle over power, seaports and Nile waters links Ethiopia’s internal conflicts with rivalries stretching from the Red Sea to Egypt. Here is how the disputes connect.

Renewed fighting wrecks 2022 peace agreement in Tigray

Tigray is Ethiopia’s northernmost region, bordering Eritrea. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front, or TPLF, dominated Ethiopia’s government from 1991 until Abiy took power in 2018.

The 2022 Pretoria peace agreement ended the war between federal forces and the TPLF, but renewed fighting has effectively shattered it. Government-allied fighters entered Mekelle, Tigray’s capital, on Oct. 4, after the TPLF withdrew.

Abiy’s government announced a six-month caretaker administration to restore services, help displaced people return and prepare for elections. But losing towns does not prevent rebels from regrouping in rural areas, Magnus Taylor, an International Crisis Group analyst, said.

The rebel alliance poses a formidable challenge but........

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