Vanguard Chief Economist: AI and jobs, still in an ATM phase

Every wave of technological change seems to arrive with a familiar prediction: This time, jobs are going away for good. The effect of automated teller machines (ATMs) on the bank teller profession reveals a more nuanced reality.

When ATMs became widespread in the 1980s, many people assumed bank tellers would soon become obsolete. They were only partially correct.

The number of tellers needed at individual branches did decline to some degree as ATMs automated routine tasks. Yet the broader employment outcome was less stark than feared. By lowering operating costs, ATMs made it economical for banks to open more branches. As a result, total U.S. bank teller employment remained broadly stable from 1980 through 2010. For a mid-career teller in the 1980s, the ATM posed far less of a threat to employment than many forecasts suggested.

New demand for more occupations

In fact, just as we expect artificial intelligence to transform the labor market, the expansion of retail banking created demand for a wider range of occupations. Banks hired more loan officers, credit analysts, personal bankers, and fraud and risk specialists. The work performed inside a branch moved up the skill-value chain. Branches became less about processing transactions and more........

© Fortune