Markets, multinational companies, and scriptwriters alike must be thrilled that Trump administration officials and representatives of Chinese leader Xi Jinping will be meeting this weekend in Geneva to talk tariffs and trade. It’s an occasion for both drama and irony: They will be gathering in the shadow of the World Trade Organization, the world’s preeminent protector of free trade, which both countries have thoroughly undermined—China through its massive industrial policy machine, Washington through its dismissive abandonment.

The stakes could not be higher. Bilateral U.S.-China trade in goods and services was $660 billion in 2024. Thousands of U.S. multinationals in China and Chinese firms in the United States do another $600 billion in business from their overseas homes. There are 286 Chinese companies on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, with a combined market cap of $1.1 trillion. This commerce acts as the circulatory system, sustaining millions of jobs, complex innovation ecosystems, and affordable lifestyles.

Markets, multinational companies, and scriptwriters alike must be thrilled that Trump administration officials and representatives of Chinese leader Xi Jinping will be meeting this weekend in Geneva to talk tariffs and trade. It’s an occasion for both drama and irony: They will be gathering in the shadow of the World Trade Organization, the world’s preeminent protector of free trade, which both countries have thoroughly undermined—China through its massive industrial policy machine, Washington through its dismissive abandonment.

The stakes could not be higher. Bilateral U.S.-China trade in goods and services was $660 billion in 2024. Thousands of U.S. multinationals in China and Chinese firms in the United States do another $600 billion in business from their overseas homes. There are 286 Chinese companies on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, with a combined market cap of $1.1 trillion. This commerce acts as the circulatory system, sustaining millions of jobs, complex innovation ecosystems, and affordable lifestyles.

If the talks fail, astronomical tariffs, mounting technology restrictions, and expanding enmity will drive the U.S. and Chinese economies and societies to fully decouple. That will produce rising unemployment, higher prices, shelf shortages, and slower growth in both countries. And as the International Monetary Fund

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