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The Future of U.S.-Africa Trade

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Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Africa Brief.

The highlights this week: A U.S.-Africa trade agreement expires, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda begin implementing a peace agreement, and Gen Z protests rattle Morocco.

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Africa Brief.

The highlights this week: A U.S.-Africa trade agreement expires, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda begin implementing a peace agreement, and Gen Z protests rattle Morocco.

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The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) expired on Tuesday. For 25 years, the trade pact offered many African countries duty-free access to the U.S. market. Its termination could impact more than a million jobs across the continent.

The United States established AGOA in 2000 to help foster economic development in Africa. But in the decades since U.S. President Bill Clinton signed it, the continent’s overall trade with the United States has diminished, in part due to rising commerce with China. AGOA also effectively became moot after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a minimum 10 percent tariff on all countries this year.

At least 32 African countries were participants in AGOA. Among them, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Nigeria, and South Africa were the largest exporters to the United States. AGOA’s lapse will impact them differently.

Nigeria, a petrostate, is likely to be cushioned from negative impacts due to its diversified trade ties. (The country’s biggest trade partners are China and India.) Since the start of Trump’s second term, Nigeria has actively worked to shift its economy away from the United States, including by partnering with other African countries and the United Kingdom.

Smaller nations that are less entwined with China are likely to be the worst affected by AGOA’s expiration. A significant proportion of goods from Madagascar (including vanilla and textiles) and Lesotho (including denim materials) are sent to the United States. Around 60,000 textile jobs are now at risk in Madagascar, according to an industry representative.

In April, Trump announced 50 percent tariffs on Lesotho, which he cut to 15 percent in July. But that reduction came too late: Many buyers in the U.S. denim industry had already begun pulling orders from the country, prompting the government to declare a state of disaster. Authorities warned that the end of duty-free access to the U.S. market could cause up to 40,000 job losses. Lesotho has a population of just 2.3 million.

To make........

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