There are many reasons to be increasingly concerned by the U.S.-Iran war’s impact on energy markets, but so far, none of them have translated into the sort of market carnage that was long predicted for such an extreme confrontation.

Benchmark crude oil prices, after actually declining on Wednesday, nosed upward a bit to around $84 a barrel, up from $80 at the start of the week. Many experts expected that a direct and expanding war between the United States and Iran that included the immediate and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz would send oil to at least $100 a barrel. 

There are many reasons to be increasingly concerned by the U.S.-Iran war’s impact on energy markets, but so far, none of them have translated into the sort of market carnage that was long predicted for such an extreme confrontation.

Benchmark crude oil prices, after actually declining on Wednesday, nosed upward a bit to around $84 a barrel, up from $80 at the start of the week. Many experts expected that a direct and expanding war between the United States and Iran that included the immediate and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz would send oil to at least $100 a barrel. 

Regardless of how calmly the market reacts, there are a number of physical realities that are becoming more apparent daily, including the all-but-complete end to transit through that vital Hormuz chokepoint; dwindling crude oil storage in the Middle East that will lead to production shutdowns at big oil fields; knock-on effects for refined products, especially in Europe and Asia; and major outages to the production and transport of natural gas, which will also affect Asia and Europe the most.

The first and fundamental problem is that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to maritime traffic, especially tankers, though a few small vessels, some affiliated with Iran, have snaked through the 20-mile-wide passage. But the oil and natural gas tankers that normally load up in Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia and carry more than 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas every day aren’t moving.

That closure has had some immediate impacts. Loaded tankers can’t leave the Persian Gulf, which is one reason........

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