Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Southeast Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: Myanmar’s anti-junta alliance is splitting under Beijing’s influence, Vietnam conducts its first-ever live-fire joint exercises with China, Malaysia’s Iranian double game on oil, and why Indonesians are scrubbing their cats.

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Southeast Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: Myanmar’s anti-junta alliance is splitting under Beijing’s influence, Vietnam conducts its first-ever live-fire joint exercises with China, Malaysia’s Iranian double game on oil, and why Indonesians are scrubbing their cats.

Have feedback? Hit reply to let me know your thoughts.

Myanmar’s Anti-Junta Alliance Turns on Itself

On March 16, news broke that the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) had seized Kutkai, in northern Shan State—not from Myanmar’s ruling junta, but rather from the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA).

What prompted the MNDAA to turn on its erstwhile ally? Both groups are part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance that launched Operation 1027, which brought the junta to its knees in 2023 and 2024.

Since March 19 it seems a cease-fire has been established—though outstanding issues apparently remain.

The MNDAA claims the cause was the TNLA attacking MNDAA troops on patrol on March 14. The two groups do have a history of skirmishing for territory.

Others point to China—which, as last week’s newsletter highlighted, exerts a growing influence over the MNDAA.

“It seems to me the MNDAA is becoming a tool for China’s strategic interests in northern Myanmar,” Angshuman Choudhury, a researcher focusing on Myanmar, told Foreign Policy.

The significance of Kutkai is that it lies on a long highway that connects Chinese Yunnan to central Myanmar, which is still under the control of the military. The TNLA had apparently operated checkpoints there, holding up trucks, Choudhury said.

An unblocked road could let commerce flow more freely and could help stabilize the junta as it transitions to a new political setup. This would suit China, a former patron of the Three Brotherhood Alliance now backing the junta for fear of a failed state on its border.

The fact that China seemingly hasn’t leaned on the MNDAA to stop its aggression—which also included drone strikes near Namkham—suggests it approves of it, Choudhury said.

“China told the FPNCC [Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee, an alliance of ethnic armed organizations] not to intervene and mediate,” he added.

Why the MNDAA might be more........

© Foreign Policy