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The United States has boosted its military presence in the Middle East to a level not seen since the leadup to the 2003 Iraq invasion, as U.S. President Donald Trump considers whether to order fresh strikes on Iran and his administration continues indirect diplomatic talks with Tehran over its nuclear program.

Though the scale of the U.S. military buildup gives Trump considerable options if he decides to attack and Iran is considered about as weak as it’s been in decades, Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and other military officials have reportedly warned him that a major, lengthy military operation against Iran would carry significant risks, including casualties for U.S. and allied forces.

The United States has boosted its military presence in the Middle East to a level not seen since the leadup to the 2003 Iraq invasion, as U.S. President Donald Trump considers whether to order fresh strikes on Iran and his administration continues indirect diplomatic talks with Tehran over its nuclear program.

Though the scale of the U.S. military buildup gives Trump considerable options if he decides to attack and Iran is considered about as weak as it’s been in decades, Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and other military officials have reportedly warned him that a major, lengthy military operation against Iran would carry significant risks, including casualties for U.S. and allied forces.

Trump, attempting to throw cold water on the reports of Caine’s warnings, posted on Truth Social on Feb. 23 that his top military advisor “like all of us, would like not to see War but, if a decision is made on going against Iran at a Military level, it is his opinion that it will be something easily won.”

But former U.S. military leaders Foreign Policy spoke with also expressed concerns about the risks for U.S. forces and allies in the region if Trump gives the go-ahead for strikes.

“The chances of losing aircraft go up exponentially when an attack is so thoroughly telegraphed,” retired Adm. James Stavridis, former supreme allied commander of NATO, said. “Iran’s air defenses have been much reduced, but they are still capable of taking out incoming aircraft if we do not thoroughly degrade them in real time for the coming strikes. This means unmanned systems going in first, using cyber to knock down their capabilities, putting up electronic jamming aircraft, and using anti-radiation missiles to take out their radar.”

Trump is considering new strikes on Iran while still riding high from successful military operations in the past year, including last June’s strikes on key nuclear sites in Iran and the January raid that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. This raises questions as to whether the president, who routinely boasts about the outcomes of these operations, might be........

© Foreign Policy