Analysis and updates

Following days of Israeli bombardment of Iran and missiles fired on Tel Aviv and other cities in reprisal by that country, the United States suddenly finds itself on the precipice of direct involvement in another major conflict in the Middle East.

Simply knowing the history of American warfare in that region and in countries nearby in the last generation is enough to render this surprising. The United States’ interventions in Iraq were enormously costly in both lives and treasure and left a broken country in their wake that has never fully rebounded. America’s long occupation of Afghanistan ended in abject retreat, having achieved even fewer of its goals and after exacting even higher costs.

Following days of Israeli bombardment of Iran and missiles fired on Tel Aviv and other cities in reprisal by that country, the United States suddenly finds itself on the precipice of direct involvement in another major conflict in the Middle East.

Simply knowing the history of American warfare in that region and in countries nearby in the last generation is enough to render this surprising. The United States’ interventions in Iraq were enormously costly in both lives and treasure and left a broken country in their wake that has never fully rebounded. America’s long occupation of Afghanistan ended in abject retreat, having achieved even fewer of its goals and after exacting even higher costs.

Although far less debated, the United States’ intervention in Libya may present the relevant precedent for what could happen if Washington commits itself to war against Iran. That intervention, conducted in collaboration with European allies, helped overthrow the longtime dictatorship of Muammar al-Qaddafi, but it also shattered that country, sending it spiraling downward into warlord-driven violence and civil war. And the collateral damage it delivered to neighboring states, as small arms spread freely through Africa’s Sahel region, was devastating.

Some of the biggest reasons for opposing what appears to be an American slide into war against Iran are purely domestic. What is known of the decision-making process thus far reveals President Donald Trump to be vain, unserious, and temperamental. Until a week or so ago, Trump had staked his foreign-policy reputation on avoiding conflict and seeking peace.........

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