Foreign & Public Diplomacy

Iran is buckling under a U.S. assault, but China is feeling the pain, too. From Beijing’s perspective, Washington is potentially demonstrating more than just the capacity to wage a regional war. If a major power can use military force and political tools to reshape an opposing regime in a key region, and do so while keeping risks under control, the implications go far beyond Iran itself—and potentially undercut China’s credibility as a rising power.

At a deeper level, the Iran crisis reinforces a lesson Beijing has been drawing from several recent episodes, including developments involving Venezuela and the forced takeover of Chinese-operated ports in Panama. Economic strength alone is insufficient; it must be accompanied by credible military power. Only when the military capabilities of major powers approach parity will it become harder for Washington to impose sanctions or coercive pressure with little regard for consequences. This realization will likely strengthen Beijing’s determination to strengthen its military, particularly in long-range power projection and strike capabilities.

Iran is buckling under a U.S. assault, but China is feeling the pain, too. From Beijing’s perspective, Washington is potentially demonstrating more than just the capacity to wage a regional war. If a major power can use military force and political tools to reshape an opposing regime in a key region, and do so while keeping risks under control, the implications go far beyond Iran itself—and potentially undercut China’s credibility as a rising power.

At a deeper level, the Iran crisis reinforces a lesson Beijing has been drawing from several recent episodes, including developments involving Venezuela and the forced takeover of Chinese-operated ports in Panama. Economic strength alone is insufficient; it must be accompanied by credible military power. Only when the military capabilities of major powers approach parity will it become harder for Washington to impose sanctions or coercive pressure with little regard for consequences. This realization will likely strengthen Beijing’s determination to strengthen its military, particularly in long-range power projection and strike capabilities.

Iran is often described as a Chinese ally. In reality, the relationship is not as close as outside observers sometimes assume. Yet Iran does function as an important pillar of China’s Middle East strategy. If the United........

© Foreign Policy