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U.S. military interventions to achieve regime change have rarely ended well for the countries involved, including the United States itself. Saddam Hussein was hanged, but Iraq continues to struggle to get back on its feet 20 years later. The Taliban are back in Afghanistan after the United States spent two decades and billions of dollars in the country. Muammar al-Qaddafi was dragged through the streets after a military intervention, but Libya remains split and floundering between parallel power centers.

Yet, as the Iranian government killed thousands of protesters under the cover of an internet blackout in recent weeks, the question of a military intervention to support the Iranian opposition is again on the table—and so is the question of whether it can make any difference in the absence of a more organized Iranian political opposition.

U.S. military interventions to achieve regime change have rarely ended well for the countries involved, including the United States itself. Saddam Hussein was hanged, but Iraq continues to struggle to get back on its feet 20 years later. The Taliban are back in Afghanistan after the United States spent two decades and billions of dollars in the country. Muammar al-Qaddafi was dragged through the streets after a military intervention, but Libya remains split and floundering between parallel power centers.

Yet, as the Iranian government killed thousands of protesters under the cover of an internet blackout in recent weeks, the question of a military intervention to support the Iranian opposition is again on the table—and so is the question of whether it can make any difference in the absence of a more organized Iranian political opposition.

Last Wednesday, after thousands of protesters were reported dead and many thousands more arrested, U.S. President Donald Trump said he had been told “the killing in Iran is stopping—it has stopped—it’s stopping,” indicating a pause in plans for military action. But the broader strategic question remained unanswered: What sort of military intervention in Iran could realistically promise to tilt the balance in favor of protesters calling for an end to the theocratic state?

A large-scale military operation is deemed risky. Saudi Arabia, Oman, and........

© Foreign Policy