As fantasy football drafts get under way from sea to shining sea, many managers are looking to built-in fantasy football projections to guide their draft day decision making. Projections inform everything from early-round picks to late-round sleepers. In today’s world, where artificial intelligence powers everything from cars to watches, it would be natural to assume that these projections are the result of amorphous algorithms or black box models.

But the reality is more nuanced. Despite the growing influence of AI in sports analytics, fantasy football projections remain a hybrid process: part statistical learning, part human judgment. Understanding that blend of art and science reveals how savvy managers can use projections more effectively.

Fantasy football projections are estimates of a player’s future performance. These projections are tailored to specific timeframes, such as a single game or a full season. Generally, they are customized to reflect each league’s scoring format and serve as a foundational tool for ranking and evaluating players ahead of drafts, providing a baseline for comparing players across positions and tiers.

By translating real-world football metrics into projected fantasy points, these models help managers identify value, assess risk and construct balanced rosters. While the core function is predictive, projections also play a strategic role in shaping draft strategy, trade evaluations and weekly lineup decisions.

Different fantasy football leagues compute their projections in different ways.

© Forbes