The Panama Canal is one of the most important waterways in the world, with about 7% of global trade passing through. It also relies heavily on rainfall. Without enough freshwater flowing in, the canal’s locks can’t raise and lower ships traveling between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Droughts mean fewer ships per day, and that can quickly affect Panama’s finances and economies around the world.

But the same freshwater is also essential for Panama’s many other needs, including drinking water for about two million Panamanians, use by Indigenous people and farmers in the watershed, as well as hydropower.

When the region experiences droughts, as it did in 2023–2024, the resulting water shortages can lead to increasing water conflicts.

One of those conflicts involves a new dam the Panama Canal Authority plans to begin building in 2027. It would be designed to secure enough water to keep the canal, which contributes about 4.2% to the country’s gross domestic product, operating into the future, but it would also submerge farming communities and displace over 2,000 people from their homes.

This recent drought wasn’t an anomaly. As an academic who studies the effects of rising temperatures on water availability and sea level rise, I’m aware that as the climate warms, Panama will likely face more extremes, both long dry spells and also periods of too much rain. That will force more trade-offs between residential needs and the canal over water use.

The Panama Canal was built over a century ago at the narrowest point of the country and in the heart of its population center. The route was historically used by the Spanish colonies and later for a rail line between the oceans.

The idea of a canal connecting the Atlantic........

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