The odds are shifting in the Oscars race: Here are the latest front-runners after last weekend’s Actor Awards

With industry showcases from SAG, the PGA, and the DGA behind us, surprising new favorites are emerging in the major Academy Award categories.

[Photo: Richard Harbaugh/The Academy via Getty Images]

Early this year, the glitz and glamour of Hollywood awards season kicked off with the Critics Choice Awards, and soon everything will culminate with the Academy Awards on March 15.

With the Oscars just two weeks away—and the rest of awards season nearly behind us—it’s the perfect time to overanalyze which movie will emerge victorious on the big night.

All this overthinking could even help you win your office competition (or make some money on Polymarket or Kalshi). Here’s everything you need to know to make an informed Oscar prediction ballot:

How Oscar nominations are chosen

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, the organization behind the Oscars, is made up of around 11,000 entertainment industry professionals broken down into 19 different branches, such as actors, directors, cinematographers, and editors.

Studios, distributors, or even filmmakers themselves officially submit their projects to be considered for nomination.

The acting, directing, and best picture categories are secretive. For these major categories, voters can back up to five performances on a preferential ballot.

Oscar nomination voting began on January 12 and lasted five days. This year’s nominations were announced on Thursday, January 22, 2026.

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