Hybrid warfare has evolved into conventional conflict: The wars in Ukraine and Iran show that hybrid strategies (proxies, disinformation, coercion) were preparatory phases that eventually escalated into open, declared warfare when red lines were crossed. 

Interconnected Russia-Iran axis: The conflicts are linked through technology (Iranian Shahed drones used in Ukraine), energy markets (Hormuz disruptions benefiting Russia), and mutual support, undermining Western efforts in both theatres. 

Need for unified Western strategy: Treating Ukraine and Iran as separate issues is a strategic error; policymakers must address them as a single adversarial logic, focusing on arms control for precision drones and rebuilding deterrence to prevent further escalation.

Frank Hoffman warned in his writing that the conflict of the 21st century will not be decided on the battlefield, but on the messy terrain of which party has better propaganda, who controls the information network effectively, and how much support there is for a proxy network. Russian military strategist Gerasimov added to this paradigm that wars today are not declared; they are ever-present. He suggested that the conflict exists in the spaces of peace and war, waged through proxies, disinformation campaigns, economic coercion, and deniable means of violence. For decades, this framework has shaped Western defence posture and the way they assess the threat environment. The assessment was not inaccurate; it was just incomplete. 

The war in Ukraine and in Tehran is no longer as hybrid as it once was. These two conflicts represent a classical case of conventional warfare. With the tanks rolling on the outskirts of Kyiv and the screaming of American jets in Tehran airspace, the conflict left the grey shade behind, and the fight became as real as it gets. These are not the ‘little green men’ of Crimea or the proxies of Houthis in Yemen anymore; they are wars where national military forces are involved, with visible consequences, and these two wars are interrelated in a way that makes the future of the global order daunting. The hybrid past was real, but it was only a pretext for what is happening now.  It was used as a preparatory architecture, behind which a full-blown conventional conflict was taking shape, at least in the minds of the strategists in the Kremlin........

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