The United States and China are locked in another round of economic confrontation, with actions on both sides intensifying a dispute that has simmered for years. On October 10, President Donald Trump announced plans for an additional 100 percent tariff on Chinese imports, set to begin November 1, along with new export controls on critical software. This would push tariffs on some goods to 130 percent, ending a fragile truce reached in August.

In retaliation, Beijing expanded its rare earth export controls on October 9, requiring licenses for materials vital to semiconductors, electric vehicles, and defense systems, effective December 1. China also launched an antitrust investigation into Qualcomm and, starting October 14, imposed new port fees on U.S.-linked vessels, mirroring American charges on Chinese ships that began the same day. These shipping fees threaten to disrupt global trade routes, raising costs for everything from consumer goods to oil shipments. Markets reacted sharply: oil prices fell more than 2 percent on October 14 amid fears of prolonged tensions, while rare earth mining stocks in the United States surged as investors anticipated supply shortages. The rhetoric has sharpened, with China’s commerce ministry declaring on October 14 that it will “fight to the end” against what it calls U.S. intimidation. Yet, beneath the surface, the core dynamics of this rivalry remain familiar and unchanged.

Despite the dramatic headlines, the long-term path of Sino-American relations has not shifted in any fundamental way. The two nations continue along a dual track of competitive confrontation and gradual reduction of mutual dependence in sensitive areas, such as technology, critical minerals, and supply chains. This is not a full reprise of the Cold War, with its ideological battles and proxy conflicts, but a strategic rivalry intertwined with deep economic links. Trade between the two reached hundreds of billions last year, even as decoupling efforts accelerated. Minor........

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