Boom And Bust: Rethinking Austrian Business Cycle Theory – OpEd
As a proponent of the Austrian School of Economics, I fundamentally oppose state intervention in economic affairs, particularly the manipulation of interest rates by central banks. Before addressing the relationship between the Federal Reserve and the executive branch, it is essential to emphasize that such interventions distort market signals, leading to misallocations of resources and economic instability.
The Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT) attributes economic cycles primarily to artificial interest rate manipulations by central banks, resulting in resource misallocation and inevitable corrections.
Here’s how it works:
In a free market, interest rates emerge from the interplay of savings (supply of funds) and borrowing (demand for funds). This natural interest rate coordinates saving and investment, reflecting consumers’ time preferences, i.e., how much they prioritize current versus future consumption. The ABCT posits that central banks distort these signals by setting rates below this natural level to stimulate the economy. Inexpensive credit encourages borrowing, spurring investments, particularly in capital-intensive, long-term projects. This initiates a boom phase marked by increased investment and production. However, this boom relies on malinvestments, projects that appear profitable only due to artificially low rates, not genuine consumer demand or sustainable conditions. These misallocations skew the economy’s capital structure, favoring higher-order goods (far from consumer use) over lower-order goods (closer to consumption).
This misalignment is unsustainable. The artificial credit expansion falters due to inflationary pressures, central bank rate hikes, or inherent instability, necessitating an adjustment. The bust phase, or recession, reveals these malinvestments, requiring their liquidation. The liquidation is an economically painful process, often accompanied by unemployment and reduced output. Austrian economists argue that the fastest recovery involves allowing the market to clear these distortions swiftly, realigning capital and labor with actual consumer........
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