*Originally published in 20221 and preserved as part of our archive project.Get E-International Relations delivered to your inbox, free of charge. As you sign up, consider becoming a paid subscriber to support our work.

The Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020 ended with thousands of lost lives, emptying half the region of its native Armenian population. Contrary to what some might think, the November 9 ceasefire agreement is not a final peace agreement and the conflict is far from over. Although the agreement implements some of the terms in the peace proposal drafted by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group, the fundamental questions about the region’s final status and the future of its native Armenian population remain unanswered, and the threat of a total ethnic cleansing stays significantly high.

Against historical claims that date back to antiquity, a line of argument is that the conflict is a modern creation. Following a resolution of the Communist Politburo in Caucasus on July 4 1921, Nagorno-Karabakh was to be incorporated into the Armenian SSR (Soviet Socialist Republic), a decision based on its overwhelmingly 94% Armenian population. Inexplicably enough , the decision was reversed the very next day to incorporate the enclave into the Azerbaijani SSR. Today , there is widespread consensus among scholars that this was part of Josef Stalin’s policy of “divide and rule”, spreading fifth column pockets in different Soviet republics as means to keep the local leadership on a tight leash. These autonomous enclaves (Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia, Abkhazia et al.) became ticking bombs which would explode upon the disintegration of Moscow’s authoritarian rule.

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