Current events have created a unique opportunity for the United States to swiftly weaken the regime in Tehran so Iranians can overthrow it. Very rapidly, though not surprisingly, Iranians’ attitude toward accepting external help in their quest to transform the country’s political system is changing because of the extreme, arbitrary, violence unleashed upon them by their leaders. Pleas emerging from ordinary Iranians occasionally able to circumvent the government’s internet shutoff since mid-January include: “We want to scream … it’s impossible to ignore this massacre” and “Don’t let them kill us.” Rising calls by Iranians for outside action are directed at U.S. President Donald Trump: “You encouraged them … don’t leave them alone.” Even direct military intervention is now requested “The (Iranian) people hope that the repressors, commanders and key figures of the Islamic regime will be targeted by drones and missiles.” Several Iranians have reached out, directly from within their country or through intermediaries who are safely outside, saying “Everyone is shocked by the regime’s savagery … arrests are still occurring, bodies are still being found, surgeons are still treating patients who are losing limbs and sight … help us end the suffering;” “If Trump acts now to create minimal security for people, they will return to the street;” “With some promised help, we can finish the job against the Ayatollah.” Even Iran’s leaders reportedly fear overthrow if the United States assists the Iranian people’s struggle for freedom.

Why Talks Again?

The Trump administration and its European partners reportedly are pressuring leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran to accept a three-part deal: Permanently abjure uranium enrichment, restrict the quality and range of ballistic missiles, and halt support for regional and global partners, proxies, and clients. To force such an agreement, the United States has been much augmenting its offensive capabilities in the Indian Ocean-Persian Gulf theater. The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group, with Carrier Air Wing 9 bolstered with additional F-35, F-18, and F-15 combat aircraft, and a three Guided Missile Destroyer Escort are ready to attack. A HIMARS missile system has been positioned in the region too. CENTCOM has begun coordinating plans with the Israel Defense Forces.

President Donald Trump is aggressively demanding consummation of offers made by Tehran last December and January when Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his inner circle feared decapitation by U.S. firepower. Tehran has made such sweeping promises before only to renege on them. Even the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or nuclear deal, while it was in effect from 2015 to 2018, did not inhibit Iran’s military from clandestinely continuing that weaponry program. Even now, Iranian officials like Deputy for Foreign Policy Affairs of the Supreme National Security Council Secretariat Ali Bagheri insist that they “have no intention of transferring enriched nuclear stockpiles to any country, and the negotiations are not about such an issue at all.” Ballistic missile stockpiles have been restored to pre-war numbers, too, western intelligence services reckon. So Trump should not succumb to the temptation of a hollow pact. Rather, he could use Tehran’s stalling as a justification to attack. But to have lasting impact, Trump’s targets will need to be far broader than nuclear and ballistic facilities. Indeed after Trump promised, on 13 January, “Iranian patriots … help is on its way,” many in that nation are chanting his name hopefully.

President Trump often has spoken of regime change as the primary solution to international and domestic challenges posed by the Islamic Republic of Iran. “It’s time to look for new leadership in Iran,” Trump reemphasized on January 17, charging that “What he (Khamenei) is guilty of, as the leader of a country, is the complete destruction of the country and the use of violence at levels never seen before.” And on January 29, Trump told news agencies that the government of Iran had been told yet again that it had to “stop killing protestors.” The U.S. President’s assessment is on target: The root problem for the Iranian people, other countries in the Middle East, and the global community of nations is the current, internally oppressive, externally aggressive, government. It arrived in power through the Islamic Revolution of 1978-79 promising to bring about a just society but then came to be guided by the intolerant fundamentalist ideology of velayat-e faqih or governance by a Shi‘ite Islamic high cleric. Only ouster of the theocracy can alter Iran and Iranians increasingly calamitous course.

An Increasingly Hostile Regime

Supreme Leader Khamenei and his brutal cohort have survived every uprising........

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