*Originally published in 2025 and preserved as part of our archive project.Get E-International Relations delivered to your inbox, free of charge. As you sign up, consider becoming a paid subscriber to support our work.

Despite a series of US brokered meetings and simultaneous diplomatic engagements with Russia and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia, a limited thirty-day energy ceasefire was achieved. Both sides have since continued to strike energy installations in each other’s territory. As both Russia and Ukraine seek a favourable outcome of the war through pursuing their maximalist demands in negotiation, an analysis of the underlying motivations and constraints influencing the feasibility of a sustainable peace framework can indicate whether a lasting solution to the conflict can be achieved through negotiation. While in broader public discourse, NATO expansion has been recognized as a key grievance for provoking Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a longstanding unease with Western European economic influence and the spread of a democratic political reform agenda in zones of Russian strategic interest have also played a role.

Through waging this war emanating from these vulnerabilities, Russia is broadly trying to achieve three goals: First, disrupt Ukrainian ties with NATO and reinstate a security buffer between itself and the West. Russia is attempting to create a frozen yet managed conflict to maintain military presence and assume the role of a self-proclaimed peace-keeper to further its interests and potentially install proxy leadership. In recent weeks, Putin’s push for placing Ukraine under UN led government and a bid to hold fresh elections is part of this elaborate subterfuge.

Second, the Kremlin is trying to derail Ukraine’s growing closeness and assimilation with Western Europe. Triggered by Ukraine and Georgia entering into the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) agreement with the European Union, which would have harmonized legislative frameworks and reinforced political integration with the West through this conflict, Russia has sought to punish Ukraine’s relationship with the EU. An unanticipated yet purposeful consequence of the Russian Federation’s debilitating war on Ukraine is the erosion of productive capacity, which weakens the long-term prospects of contributing and qualifying for both EU and NATO memberships.

Third, and finally, by leveraging this conflict, Russia is trying to erode pro-Western sympathy and........

© E-International