The idea of China's outstripping the United States to become the world's largest economy has been a fixation for policymakers and economists for decades. What will happen, they argue, when the US — one of the most dynamic, productive economies — is usurped by an authoritarian regime with a three-quarters-of-a-billion-strong workforce?

Predictions of when exactly China would steal the US's crown have come thick and fast ever since the 2008/9 financial crisis, which hampered growth in the United States and Europe for many years. Before what became known as the Great Recession, China saw double-digit annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth for at least five years. In the decade following the crisis, China's economy continued to expand by 6%-9% annually. That is, until COVID-19 struck.

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As if the pandemic — which led to strict lockdown measures that brought the economy to its knees — weren't enough, the Asian powerhouse was also plunged into a real estate crash. At its peak, the property market was responsible for a third of China's economy. However, rules introduced by Beijing in 2020 put limits on how much debt property developers could take on. Many firms went bankrupt, leaving an estimated 20 million unfinished or delayed homes unsold.

Around the same time, declining trade relations with the West also weakened growth in the world's second-largest economy. Having encouraged China's ascendancy for decades, by the late 2010s, the US shifted to containing Beijing's economic and military ambitions, if only to delay the inevitable advance.

The apparent change of fortunes for the Chinese........

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