FOR many decades now, Pakistan has been investing in a large and expensive military apparatus to fend off external threats to the country. Today, that apparatus faces its supreme test.

With the near simultaneous start of conflict in Afghanistan and Iran, the country’s entire western border is now a war zone. Moreover, neither war looks like it will be over soon. With the prospect of protracted conflict on the entire western flank, Pakistan must now take sober stock of its resource position to be able to sustain the burdens that conflict will inevitably bring.

These burdens will come in different forms. First and foremost will be the requirements of the war itself, especially mobilisation if more ground forces become necessary, and the rate at which armaments need to be replenished. Second will be the aftershocks from the fighting: rising oil prices in international markets, distracted allies on whom Pakistan relies to get the rollovers it needs for its external obligations, disruption of foreign trade due to rising shipping costs (already insurance cost on foreign shipments has risen massively) as well as port closures in the Gulf countries through which all Pakistan’s west-bound exports transit. Add to this the impact on remittances since the Gulf countries under fire are sources of a significant share of Pakistan’s remittance flows.

This is only the beginning. The list of second-order impacts will grow more and more complicated as the war in Iran drags on, which all indications suggest it will. The fate........

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