IRAN’S revolution seems deferred — for now. But, as the poet said, the centre cannot hold. It is thus time to ask what the possible collapse of the regime there would mean for Pakistan. Developments in Iran have always had domestic ripple effects. The countries’ trajectories have been entwined since Iran became the first country to recognise Pakistan in 1947. The neighbours have over the decades banded together — for example, during the 1965 and 1971 wars — but also squabbled, as seen in the recent tit-for-tat targeting of armed groups in 2024.

Any change in Iran’s ruling dispensation would affect Pakistan. This may not be an immediate prospect given the shocking violence meted out against protesters in recent days, reportedly leaving thousands dead. Writing in Time magazine, Narges Bajoghli points out that at this moment, the ingredients for another Iranian revolution do not quite add up.

In 1979, the Iranian people, the clergy, and the ‘bazaar’, united, with the support of several key military factions. That unity is elusive right now: there are reported tensions among the clerical authorities, the merchant class is now integrated with and dependent on the regime; and the security forces are still willing to open fire on the........

© Dawn