WHEN the Taliban entered Kabul in August 2021, the world feared Afghanistan was heading towards an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe. Those fears proved well-founded. Yet few imagined that nearly five years later, Afghanistan would remain one of the world’s gravest humanitarian crises despite the absence of a nationwide civil war.

The United Nations warned in 2022 that almost half the Afghan population was facing acute food insecurity. With the advent of the Taliban, the banking system had collapsed, millions had lost their livelihoods, and the sudden suspension of international assistance had pushed the economy into free fall. More importantly, professionals already in short supply started leaving the country. At the same time, women were progressively excluded from public life, girls were denied secondary education, and poverty became the defining feature of Afghan society. Those early warnings have not simply materialised; they have grown with each passing year.

Today, Afghanistan presents one of the greatest paradoxes in contemporary international politics. The Taliban have succeeded in ending a four-decade-long insurgency and now exercise authority over almost the entire country. Armed conflict has declined significantly compared with the final years of the previous republic. Yet military victory has failed to produce either economic recovery or national prosperity.

According to the World Bank’s latest assessment, Afghanistan’s economy may be resilient even as living standards deteriorate. Domestic revenues have increased, inflation has eased, and modest economic growth has returned after the unprecedented contraction that followed the Taliban takeover. Yet these encouraging indicators conceal a sobering reality. Population growth continues to........

© Dawn