As Washington and Beijing jostle for influence, Islamabad is quietly refining a survival strategy — one that trades allegiance for leverage, turning great-power rivalry into an economic opportunity.

China remains Pakistan’s largest trading partner but also its biggest source of imports, fuelling a persistent bilateral trade deficit. Much of this is tied to machinery, technology, and raw materials for infrastructure and industrial projects. Pakistan’s export basket to China, however, is still dominated by low-value goods, leaving ample room for value addition. This imbalance underscores a structural reliance on Chinese supply lines — a relationship that powers growth but also exposes vulnerabilities in the external account.

Figures from the State Bank of Pakistan show China retained its position as Pakistan’s largest source of imports in FY25, with the bill rising by 20.7 per cent to $16.31 billion from $13.51bn a year earlier.

The increase was driven primarily by electrical and electronic equipment, machinery, nuclear reactors, and raw iron, steel, and organic chemicals. Imports from newer sectors also gained ground, including solar energy equipment and electric vehicle components, underscoring Pakistan’s gradual shift towards energy transition and technological modernisation.

Exports to China, meanwhile, weakened. The Trade Development Authority of Pakistan (TDAP) data indicates a fall in shipments by 7pc in FY25 to $2.38bn........

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