The growth of the agriculture sector largely depends on crop yield improvements, which are influenced by several factors. Among these, the nationwide availability of, and farmers’ access to high-yielding, climate-resilient seeds stands out as the most critical determinant of yield, assuming all other conditions remain constant.

History bears this out. The real driving force behind the Green Revolution of the 1960s and 1970s was the breakthrough in high-yielding crop varieties — most notably the semi-dwarf wheat bred by Nobel laureate Norman Borlaug (introduced in Pakistan as Mexi-Pak) and the International Rice Research Institute rice varieties.

Unfortunately, Pakistan has failed to develop a strong and vibrant seed sector. From the farmers’ standpoint, three challenges stand out: the widespread availability of poor-quality seeds, growing reliance on imported seeds, and the escalating proportion of seed costs within total crop production expenses. Taken together, these are turning seed into agriculture’s third binding constraint — alongside land and water.

Substandard seeds have been a major contributor to cotton’s collapse in the country

The impact of decades-long poor performance of the seed sector is already visible. Among several causes, substandard seed has been a major contributor to cotton’s collapse in the country — production has fallen from 13.96 million bales in 2014-15 to barely 7m bales in 2024-25.

This weakness is not confined to cotton alone. Last year, farmers growing hybrid rice suffered heavy losses when imported seed — mostly from China — failed to withstand high temperatures and heatwaves. As a result, the area under........

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