The Iran war has reached yet another confusing potential endgame, maybe, after the U.S. and Iran seemed to near an agreement of some kind over the weekend, at least according to President Trump’s Truth Social emanations and unnamed U.S. officials, per various reports. Now there’s a new draft proposal circulating, but it’s not at all clear whether the two sides are any closer to a deal. Here’s our attempt to peer through the fog.

It’s a cabinet performance more than a meeting:

Rubio on Iran: Diplomacy is always the first option. pic.twitter.com/Ua4uwAwfeK— Acyn (@Acyn) May 27, 2026

Rubio on Iran: Diplomacy is always the first option. pic.twitter.com/Ua4uwAwfeK

And he isn’t happy with the state of negotiations (again) and threatening more bombing (again)

Said Trump: “Iran want’s a deal. We are not there yet. We are not satisfied with it.”

President Trump on Iran's proposals for a deal: "We're not satisfied with it…Maybe we have to go back and finish it." pic.twitter.com/yxKW6wS5R2— CSPAN (@cspan) May 27, 2026

President Trump on Iran's proposals for a deal: "We're not satisfied with it…Maybe we have to go back and finish it." pic.twitter.com/yxKW6wS5R2

In his defense, he does seem to have confused them

Trump discussing Venezuela Iran at his cabinet meeting:

Trump appears to confuse Venezuela with Iran:Despite the conflict with Venezuela, who no longer has a navy, no longer has an air force, no longer has a lot of people that were leading the country into very bad places and their leadership is gone. pic.twitter.com/jZsIXSFB5A— Acyn (@Acyn) May 27, 2026

Trump appears to confuse Venezuela with Iran:Despite the conflict with Venezuela, who no longer has a navy, no longer has an air force, no longer has a lot of people that were leading the country into very bad places and their leadership is gone. pic.twitter.com/jZsIXSFB5A

And now the Trump administration is denying the draft agreement is real

Because of course they are:

This report from Iranian controlled media is not true and the MOU they “released” is a complete fabrication. Nobody should believe what Iranian state media is putting out. FACTS MATTER. https://t.co/agpTnBSgKu— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) May 27, 2026

This report from Iranian controlled media is not true and the MOU they “released” is a complete fabrication. Nobody should believe what Iranian state media is putting out. FACTS MATTER. https://t.co/agpTnBSgKu

There are political objectives behind leaks in the both the U.S. and Iran over what is and is not allegedly in the deal and to date, most has been wrong. Waiting for actual outline or text to be released and confirmed as it’s led to conjecture and speculation, which was the goal.— Alex Plitsas 🇺🇸 (@alexplitsas) May 27, 2026

There are political objectives behind leaks in the both the U.S. and Iran over what is and is not allegedly in the deal and to date, most has been wrong. Waiting for actual outline or text to be released and confirmed as it’s led to conjecture and speculation, which was the goal.

And the price of oil immediately dropped

After all that, we only got a $2-3/bbl selloff in Brent crude following the MOU draft headlines out of Tehran.We had previously gotten much more for much [much, much] less. pic.twitter.com/Gq0I8pAaIw— Rory Johnston (@Rory_Johnston) May 27, 2026

After all that, we only got a $2-3/bbl selloff in Brent crude following the MOU draft headlines out of Tehran.We had previously gotten much more for much [much, much] less. pic.twitter.com/Gq0I8pAaIw

Draft MOU surfaces on Iranian state media

Reuters reports on the unofficial framework reported by a state broadcaster, which seems a strait reopening timeline of 30 days:

Under the framework, Iran would restore ​commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to ⁠pre-war levels within a month, while the United States ​would withdraw military forces from Iran’s vicinity and lift ​a naval blockade.State TV said the framework, which excludes military vessels and envisages Iran managing ship traffic through the strait in ​cooperation with Oman, was not yet finalised and that ​Tehran would take no steps without “tangible verification”.It added that if ‌a ⁠final agreement was reached within 60 days, it could be approved as a binding U.N. Security Council resolution.

Under the framework, Iran would restore ​commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to ⁠pre-war levels within a month, while the United States ​would withdraw military forces from Iran’s vicinity and lift ​a naval blockade.

State TV said the framework, which excludes military vessels and envisages Iran managing ship traffic through the strait in ​cooperation with Oman, was not yet finalised and that ​Tehran would take no steps without “tangible verification”.

It added that if ‌a ⁠final agreement was reached within 60 days, it could be approved as a binding U.N. Security Council resolution.

The framework says nothing about Iran’s nuclear material or frozen assets.

U.S. officials say latest strikes followed day of provocative moves by Iran

According to two who spoke with the New York Times, anyway:

The U.S. military strikes against targets in southern Iran on Monday came after intelligence analysts detected a series of potentially threatening Iranian military actions in the 24 hours leading up to the strikes, two American officials said on Tuesday. …The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters, also said that Iran launched one-way attack drones near some of the nearly two dozen U.S. Navy warships in or around the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The ships are enforcing a blockade against vessels trying to enter or leave Iranian ports.American military analysts also detected activity at some of Iran’s surface-to-air missile sites near the Strait of Hormuz that threatened land- and carrier-based attack planes operating in the region as part of the naval blockade.

The U.S. military strikes against targets in southern Iran on Monday came after intelligence analysts detected a series of potentially threatening Iranian military actions in the 24 hours leading up to the strikes, two American officials said on Tuesday. …

The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters, also said that Iran launched one-way attack drones near some of the nearly two dozen U.S. Navy warships in or around the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The ships are enforcing a blockade against vessels trying to enter or leave Iranian ports.

American military analysts also detected activity at some of Iran’s surface-to-air missile sites near the Strait of Hormuz that threatened land- and carrier-based attack planes operating in the region as part of the naval blockade.

Trying to decipher the Trump administration confusion

The Crisis Group gives it a go:

The U.S. position remains mired in confusion — the result of Trump’s mixed messaging compounded by the gap between the U.S. and Iranian framings of a purported deal and U.S. strikes on southern Iran (which Washington claims were defensive in nature, taking out missile launchpads and boats attempting to lay mines). As at previous junctures during the ceasefire, Trump again claimed that a deal might be imminent while noting that his negotiators are in no hurry to reach an agreement. On 24 May, Rubio acknowledged that nuclear issues could not be resolved “in 72 hours on the back of a napkin.” One could read this remark as an admission that the initial understanding would focus on the strait and leave the granular nuclear matters to later, in line with Iran’s position — but with the U.S. still seeking broad language up front on how those issues would be managed in the negotiations to come …The combination of right-wing criticism and left-wing ridicule could well have an impact on the mercurial Trump, who is always wary of appearing weak or of entering a deal that critics could portray as less advantageous than the nuclear agreement reached under President Obama. Trump’s 25 May social media statement “mandatorily requesting” that Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other states involved in mediation join the Abraham Accords with Israel, and asserting that “if they don’t, they should not be part of this Deal in that it shows bad intention,” could thus be read as a last-minute, wholly chimerical attempt to upgrade the deal that is bound to fall by the wayside. Or it could be a poison pill that the president was persuaded by others to introduce. While Trump has famously built a political career weaving among inconsistent positions until he alights on the........

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