When last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act was signed by Donald Trump last July 4, the conventional wisdom in Washington was that it was a one-and-done effort to use the budget reconciliation vehicle for strict party-line lawmaking prior to the 2026 midterms. Indeed, that’s why the bill got so very big. It was generally thought that putting together and enacting such legislation, given the small GOP majorities in the Senate and especially the House, was so politically risky that it wasn’t something you could do in a difficult election year like 2026.

But now, following a command from Trump, congressional Republicans are working on a second bill using the reconciliation process, which by definition excludes Democratic input and is invulnerable to a Democratic filibuster. The only real question is whether they follow that up with a third Big Beautiful Bill a bit later this year.

You might think this return to the well on reconciliation reflects GOP self-confidence based on their success in passing the original OBBBA. More likely, it reflects GOP pessimism about the midterms. If, as appears increasingly likely, Democrats take control of the House in November, party-line governing will be dead until 2029 at the earliest. So this year represents the last bites at the apple for a soon-to-be broken Republican trifecta. How many bites, and how big the apple becomes, are now the subject of intense debate within and between the GOP’s House and Senate ranks.

What’s immediately driving the budget reconciliation train is the impasse with Democrats over DHS funding and restrictions on ICE and CBP tactics. In conjunction with Trump, Senate Republicans decided to separate the two issues, end the embarrassing DHS shutdown, and then use budget reconciliation to pre-fund immigration enforcement (already adequately supplied by the OBBBA) for three years, which would make it very difficult for Democrats to reduce or restrict ICE/CBP funding even if they do partially or totally control Congress. Trump imposed a June 1 deadline for getting the reconciliation bill to his desk, and instructed the House to go ahead and reopen DHS in the interim.

Since the House was in recess when Trump brokered this “two-stage process” for dealing with DHS and its component parts, Mike Johnson had a good excuse for dragging his feet on reopening DHS. But as Trump became distracted by his disaster of a war against Iran, the hard-core conservatives of the House Freedom Caucus who hold perpetual leverage over Johnson rebelled at closing the deal. They have rejected the idea of reopening DHS until the reconciliation bill pre-funding ICE and CBP has cleared the RINO-infested Senate, and are now talking about funding all of DHS via reconciliation so that the Senate-passed, Trump-endorsed appropriations bill will never see the light of day. Indeed, in a pretty clear indication of how far from reality these people have drifted, it’s become common in HFC circles to refer to the DHS funding bill as “the open borders bill,” on the bizarre theory that not stuffing ICE and CBP with even more money than they already have will mean new hordes of illegal immigrants rushing into the country.

So there’s more pressure than ever to get at least one “Big Beautiful Bill” done pronto. But many of the very same right-wingers who are demanding quick action on reconciliation also want to stuff the bill with legislation that has nothing to do with immigration enforcement: maybe Iran war funding (though that looks like less of a lift if the cease-fire with Iran sticks); maybe big cuts in domestic programs alleged to be rife with “fraud;” and maybe even Trump’s toxic SAVE America Act. So the obvious way out of this quandary is to do another budget reconciliation bill a bit later, but that requires some trust in Republican leadership that is lacking, as Punchbowl News explains:

Johnson is already pointing to reconciliation 3.0 as the place where House Republicans will achieve other priorities. The Budget Committees are at work on a third bill that would target fraud, address priorities from the SAVE America Act and fund the war in Iran.But conservatives will demand all their priorities be included in Reconciliation 2.0 since it’s abundantly clear 3.0 is far from a sure thing. House and Senate GOP leaders will have limited time to resolve any and all of these disputes.

Johnson is already pointing to reconciliation 3.0 as the place where House Republicans will achieve other priorities. The Budget Committees are at work on a third bill that would target fraud, address priorities from the SAVE America Act and fund the war in Iran.

But conservatives will demand all their priorities be included in Reconciliation 2.0 since it’s abundantly clear 3.0 is far from a sure thing. House and Senate GOP leaders will have limited time to resolve any and all of these disputes.

Those with long memories will recall that early in 2025, a similar one-bill, two-bill debate raged for weeks among congressional Republicans, which was resolved by Trump’s endorsement of the former strategy, which is how the “One Big Beautiful Bill” got named to begin with. It’s likely he will weigh in again, and it’s likely his ruling will be dispositive. If he goes with two bills, perhaps the ICE/CBP measure can be whipped through Congress quickly (and who knows? Maybe DHS can actually be reopened) in order to get to the second one. But if Trump again goes for just the one, the saga could drag on through spring and well into the summer, depending on exactly how abominable Republicans decide to make their last big legislative push before the midterms.

The Iran War Cease-fire May Already Be Unraveling: Updates

What Is the Iran War About? Trump Still Has No Clue.

GOP Stumbles in Wisconsin & Georgia Warn of Midterms Trouble

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