When last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act was signed by Donald Trump last July 4, the conventional wisdom in Washington was that it was a one-and-done effort to use the budget reconciliation vehicle for strict party-line lawmaking prior to the 2026 midterms. Indeed, that’s why the bill got so very big. It was generally thought that putting together and enacting such legislation, given the small GOP majorities in the Senate and especially the House, was so politically risky that it wasn’t something you could do in a difficult election year like 2026.

But now, following a command from Trump, congressional Republicans are working on a second bill using the reconciliation process, which by definition excludes Democratic input and is invulnerable to a Democratic filibuster. The only real question is whether they follow that up with a third Big Beautiful Bill a bit later this year.

You might think this return to the well on reconciliation reflects GOP self-confidence based on their success in passing the original OBBBA. More likely, it reflects GOP pessimism about the midterms. If, as appears increasingly likely, Democrats take control of the House in November, party-line governing will be dead until 2029 at the earliest. So this year represents the last bites at the apple for a soon-to-be broken Republican trifecta. How many bites, and how big the apple becomes, are now the subject of intense debate within and between the GOP’s House and Senate ranks.

What’s immediately driving the budget........

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