Is this really the best California Democrats can come up with? That question has hovered over this year’s gubernatorial race, in which the state’s voters will choose a replacement for term-limited Gavin Newsom. Kamala Harris’s expected run froze the primary candidate pool for months, but she skipped the race in favor of a book tour and possible third presidential bid, and other high-profile names took a pass as well. In a field widely acknowledged as uninspiring, Eric Swalwell had gained serious momentum until sexual assault allegations derailed his candidacy and forced his resignation from Congress. Now, Democrats are left with a splintered field that includes Xavier Becerra, a staid former Congressman and Biden administration official who suddenly surged in polls after Swalwell’s departure billionaire; Tom Steyer, who has branded himself a traitor to his class; tech-forward San Jose mayor Matt Mahan; and former Congresswoman Katie Porter, well-known for grilling executives. In California, primaries are non-partisan, and there are also two serious, MAGA-friendly Republican candidates, Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton, the latter of whom gained Donald Trump’s endorsement. Since the candidates who finish in first and second place will advance to November’s general election, the Republicans’ presence near the top of polls has raised fears that they could lock out Democrats from the governorship, even in a deep-blue state.

To make sense of this muddle ahead of primary day on June 2, I spoke with Dan Walters, a venerable political journalist who is an opinion columnist at the nonprofit news site CalMatters. Walters has been covering the state since 1975, and estimates he is approaching his 11,000th column. He says this race is a mess unlike any he’s seen, and explains that California’s structural problems are a big reason why.

The man of the moment right now is Xavier Becerra, who has surged in polls and was the target of a lot of attacks at last week’s debate — usually a sign of being the front-runner. Do you agree with that characterization, and if so, do you think that status is precarious or solid?It’s pretty solid. It was remarkable how he came from almost nothing to become the leader of the upper tier — I’ll call it the upper tier — after Eric Swalwell flamed out. I didn’t originate this, but I think it’s accurate: he’s the California Biden. There’s no real mystery about him. Maybe it’s simply that after seven years of Gavin Newsom, people want a little peace. Whatever it is, what I would call the Democratic establishment rolled in behind Becerra pretty quickly. And he’s got union support, particularly the real left-wing unions, like the United Nurses Association.

There’s a lot of unease with Steyer, who’s the only other Democrat really in contention now. He’s an unknown quantity when it comes to governance, obviously a very rich man financing his own campaign. At the same time, he’s tried to establish himself as the champion of the progressive left by endorsing all of their holy-grail issues: single-payer health care, taxing the rich, all that.

But he is, after all, a billionaire. He wouldn’t be particularly beholden to the unions and some of the other powerful entities in the party. So he’s an unknown quantity, whereas Becerra is a known quantity. There’s also a history of rich people trying to run for high office in California and failing. None of them has ever succeeded.

That’s kind of comforting. Money doesn’t buy you everything.Meg Whitman spent $150 million trying to prevent Jerry Brown from becoming governor for the second time, back in 2010, and she failed miserably. In 1998, two self-funded candidates did what people called a murder-suicide act, and both of them lost. So there’s that history.

On the other hand, Becerra is not exactly a live wire. He doesn’t have a lot of vigor. He’s basically a reliable, go-by-the-book Democratic politician. And there are a couple of potential clouds over his head. There have been articles saying that people from the Biden administration are laughing about him.

Yes, Politico reported that Biden alums are baffled that he’s the frontrunner, because they think he’s totally ineffectual. He didn’t really blaze any new trails as Secretary of Health and Human Services. The other thing is this crazy scandal involving his campaign account, which is what Steyer is hitting hardest in his anti-Becerra ads. Becerra’s chief of staff, a guy who followed him to Washington, set up a deal in which he was going to tap Becerra’s campaign fund for some extra income. People are going to jail over this thing.

It involved, among others, the former chief of staff to Gavin Newsom and two underlings. The two underlings have already pleaded guilty, and the former Newsom chief of staff is awaiting trial. Becerra has always said, “I know nothing about this. I was the victim. These people did this all behind my back.” But there are a couple of pieces of video out there. At one point he said he knew about the checks being cut, and later he........

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