Despite growing economic strains and political turbulence in both countries, a potential alignment between Germany’s centre-right Chancellor Friedrich Merz and a far-right French president could temporarily steady Europe’s core — but deep fiscal and ideological divides between Paris and Berlin still threaten the long-term stability of the European Union and its single currency, says David Marsh

A cornerstone of Europe over 70 years has been the depth of cooperation between France and Germany at the centre of the continent. The alliance within the European Community (from the 1990s, the Union) has often featured dissent and conflict – such as discord between Paris and Berlin about preparations for the Euro in 1999 as well as, more recently, by disagreement on nuclear energy, trade agreements with Latin America and joint activities to build fighter aircraft. In the last few days, a new spectre has loomed. France looks increasingly likely to vote for a politician of the extreme right as its next president – either in April 2027, if Emmanuel Macron lasts to the end of his second term or conceivably earlier if the latest French government crisis results in France’s president standing down and calling early elections.

Might this lead to a European catharsis? My view is that we are heading for stormy waters but not a complete shipwreck – at least, not for the time being. Friedrich Merz, Germany’s centre-right Christian Democrat chancellor since May 2025 – who has already had to forge links with two failed French Prime Ministers during his brief time in office – would almost certainly get on reasonably well with a........

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