The OBR is being far too optimistic in its assumptions about productivity growth in the UK – meaning the scale of the country’s debt problem is even greater than it appears, says Ben Ramanauskas

According to the OBR’s forecast, the National Debt is projected to be over 270 per cent of GDP by the 2070s. This in itself is alarming enough, but the outlook is actually even worse. The OBR assumes that productivity growth will average around 1.5 per cent over this period – but in reality it has been closer to a paltry 0.5 per cent in recent years. If this trend continues then the National Debt will balloon to 647 per cent of GDP by the early 2070s.

This is unsustainable. The country already spends over £100bn each year servicing the National Debt, which is higher than the budgets for other departments including defence, education, and the criminal justice system. By even the most optimistic assumptions of the OBR this looks set to drastically........

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