The vows sound grand.

Mark Carney is promising a Nov. 4 budget like none other to unleash “unprecedented” private investment, double non-U.S. exports within a decade, and rebuild economic resilience.

But as part of an audacious agenda, the prime minister says it will mean “sacrifices,” even as Canadians say they’re already stretched and suffering. His budget preview Wednesday was laced with political and economic landmines that could detonate before the ink on the fiscal plan dries. Can he safely walk us across the field?

Start with the politics. Carney is asking Canadians to accept near-term pain for a long-term payoff. Give credit: that framing is honest—hard-core honest—but it’s also a billboard for opponents. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s price for support in the Commons is an “affordable budget” that cuts taxes and caps the deficit. The more Carney leans into sacrifice, the easier it is to caricature the plan as austerity without relief, or as a gamble with other people’s money if the deficit swells. The Liberal House leader, Steve McKinnon, is edgy in worrying about opposition support, knowing it may not enjoy sufficient confidence in the House to avoid a vote-prompted election.

Then there’s the federation. Provinces are already broadcasting their own red lines as Ottawa sketches its investment play. B.C. wants a sharper answer on softwood and is standing in the way of Alberta’s pipeline proposal. Ontario wants shields for autos after Stellantis’ reshoring to........

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