The next National Defence Strategy (NDS), expected in early 2026, should deliver something Australia has long lacked: a strategic narrative that tells the public what truly matters to our security, what threatens it, and how Defence will protect it.

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With no new major National Security Strategy since 2013 or a foreign policy white paper since 2017, the NDS now shoulders the weighty burden of defining Australia's national interests.

Because the NDS must speak for both security and defence, it needs to clarify and strengthen the two core tenets of any strategy: Australia's vital national interests and the threats that endanger them.

Australia can no longer rely on vague "security" or "stability" to justify multi-decade military investments.

When government asks Australians to support major investments - nuclear-powered submarines, a guided weapons enterprise, hardened northern bases and a larger defence workforce - it must explain their logic, not assume it.

The public should be able to easily appreciate what risks justify these costs, what interests are at stake, why these capabilities matter and why they are needed now.

A strategy that cannot be explained is a strategy that's unlikely to be sustained - and today the stakes are too high for ambiguity.

Without that clarity, government lacks a foundation to build the social licence needed for long-term investment. With it, Australians can more easily see what we are preparing for, why it matters and what trade-offs will be required.

A strategy that links interests, risks and resources sharpens policy, elevates public debate and strengthens Australia's ability to act with purpose - both today and in the decade ahead.

Strategy begins with an assessment of the environment. When the 2025 Annual National Threat Assessment was released last February,........

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