Ukrainian national flags flying over the Yatsevo Cemetery in Chernihiv. Photo by Stas Yurchenko.

Two weeks ago, on July 28, American political scientist William Zartman passed away. Famous for inventing “ripeness theory,” Zartman maintained that, barring the absolute victory of one side or the other, wars end only when two conditions are met: first, there must be a mutually hurting stalemate and, second, both sides must perceive a way out. Absent those conditions, the conditions of peace are not “ripe” and any diplomatic efforts to end a war will fail.

What matters here is perceptions rather than reality. Whatever the actual situation, the warring parties have to perceive that they cannot win and have to perceive that there is some way out. Successful peace-making is about nudging perceptions in that direction.

Unfortunately, as the American and Russian presidents, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, prepare to meet in Alaska this Friday, the conditions of the war in Ukraine remain far from ripe. The war is certainly “mutually hurting,” but there is no indication that the Russians regard it as being in any way stalemated. On the contrary, it is clear that they believe that they have a distinct military advantage that is growing month by month.

In this, they are right. Ukraine is suffering a severe shortage of manpower, meaning that crucial parts of the front are only very weakly defended, allowing Russian forces to infiltrate through the gaps. By contrast, the size of the Russian army in Ukraine apparently continues to grow, as acknowledged by the head of the Ukrainian army, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, who recently claimed that Russian forces were

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