US President Donald Trump’s annexation threats and looming tariffs have become topic number one in Canadian political discourse. To some degree, Trump’s threats and insults have reinvigorated debates within Canada about nationalism, self-reliance, and Canadian dependence on trade with the US. They have also contributed to a shift in the momentum of Canadian electoral politics, throwing the Conservatives off-balance and pushing some wind into the sails of an ailing Liberal Party.

According to polling firm Ipsos, the Liberals have gained eight points since early January while the Conservatives are down five. The firm’s long-term graph shows a steady rise in support for the Conservative Party starting in February 2023, and a steady drop in support for the Liberals beginning at the same time. The gap mostly widened until January of this year, as Trump turned Canada into a rhetorical punching bag.

Canadians will heading to the ballot box this year.

The Liberal Party of Canada has gained some ground since Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he’ll be resigning, but the Conservatives remain well ahead if an election were held tomorrow? https://t.co/RwjfdLybxY pic.twitter.com/OFEmL7W8lp

In the immediate aftermath of Trump’s tariff threat in December, it seemed the biggest victims were the Liberals. After all, the threat exposed rifts in Trudeau’s cabinet and the weakness of his leadership. Former Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland used the tariffs as political fodder to increase pressure on Trudeau........

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