From outcast to powerhouse, the rise, fall and resurrection of Danielle Smith is an Alberta political odyssey fit for the ages.

Smith is arguably the most powerful premier in Canada. She leads the country’s most prosperous province that has, under her stewardship, finally become the focus of national attention it has always craved.

And, most importantly, Smith holds the future of Confederation in her hands. As long as she keeps repeating the mantra of supporting a strong and sovereign Alberta within a united Canada, the fires of separation will continue to simply smoulder, until a likely fall referendum pours cold water on any remaining talk of going it alone.

But if Smith announces that, despite her best efforts, Ottawa is again deliberately blocking the road ahead for this province, then that referendum becomes a toss-up. Yes, Alberta might leave if Smith leads that charge.

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Such power in the hands of one person — her UCP caucus being lightweight also-rans — would be rare for any politician. But considering where Smith was a decade ago, it’s as close to miraculous as politics allows.

After bursting onto stage as leader of the upstart Wildrose party, Smith stunned Albertans when she crossed the floor in December 2014 to join the governing Progressive Conservatives under then-premier Jim Prentice, a party that would subsequently lose to the NDP a few months later. Smith lost her own seat and became a political outcast, eventually finding meagre refuge as a radio talk-show host.

Nobody gave her a snowball’s chance in hell of being elected to any office again. Her political career looked visible only in the rear-view mirror.

Yet, seven years later, she became Alberta’s 19th premier, replacing Jason Kenney as leader of the UCP. Lazarus himself would have been proud.

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She’s close to untouchable when it comes to personal popularity. It makes little sense viewed through the lens of traditional politics. The current UCP government is beset by problems: crises in the classrooms and emergency wards, with an almighty budgetary deficit looming on the near horizon. Oh, and the not insignificant issue of Alberta facing a vote on separation under Smith’s tenure.

Yet, there she stands, way ahead in popularity compared to Naheed Nenshi, the NDP leader cherry-picked to become her nemesis. The former Calgary mayor was thought to be a surefire hit in his hometown while Smith struggled to keep pace, which would be enough to give the NDP another shot at ruling the province.

But two recent credible polls show the Smith magic — what else can you call it when every usual metric would point to her being a bust as premier — has her party leading by 13 points. Remember, this comes midway through the government’s mandate, a time when opposition is often strongest.

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Certainly, there’s plenty of opposition among public sector unions, which are relentless in their attacks. But the premier seems clothed in Teflon — a planned general strike was a failure, while a push to force a recall election for Smith and other UCP MLAs died on the vine.

Despite all that has gone before, Smith resonates with many ordinary Albertans. So much so that a politician nobody trusted a handful of years ago now is entrusted to steer the province through the turbulent waters of a potential split from Canada itself.

The pressure must be enormous, but she never seems to blink. In dealing with Prime Minister Mark Carney, it is Smith who looks the most steadfast. The deal announced last week, whereby the province takes control of regulatory approvals for its major projects, is a stunning victory for Alberta.

We’ve waited decades to receive such respect.

Of course, given the high stakes, this could all come crashing down. But, for now, Smith’s remarkable resurrection shows little sign of ending.

Chris Nelson is a regular columnist.

© Calgary Herald