Pakistan, home to 240 million people, faces an energy paradox: surplus generation capacity alongside persistent electricity shortages. Despite an installed capacity of 44,000 megawatts (MW), nearly 40% of households endure over six hours of daily outages, costing the economy $18 billion annually in lost GDP.

At the core of this crisis is a dysfunctional system dominated by Independent Power Producers (IPPs), which claim Rs. 900 billion annually in capacity payments, 64% of total costs for underutilized fossil fuel plants.

These contracts, which guarantee payments regardless of actual electricity usage, have driven tariffs up by 75% since 2020, making Pakistani industries 35% less competitive than regional peers. Meanwhile, transmission losses of 17–20%, twice the global average prevent surplus power from reaching consumers.

Yet, a promising solution lies in plain sight: solar energy. Pakistan’s solar potential exceeds 2,900 gigawatt-hours annually enough to power the country 100 times over. However, solar contributes only 4% to the energy mix, despite its potential to deliver 40,000 MW by 2035. The path forward lies in decentralized rooftop systems rather than mega solar parks.

Already, over 1,500 MW of rooftop solar has been installed, spurred by a 300% surge in net metering adoption in 2022. Scaling this to 12,000 MW by 2030 could reduce oil imports by $4 billion annually and create 500,000 jobs, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).

A 2022 pilot in Punjab showcased the potential: rooftop solar redirected to industrial zones via wheeling agreements cut energy costs by 30% and boosted exports by $500 million. For every 1 MW of installed solar, 25–30 jobs are generated. If export zones adopt decentralized energy, GDP growth could rise by 2–3% annually, drawing foreign investment and expanding value-added exports.........

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