The history of Pakistan’s economy can be aptly summarised in three words: fragility not recognised. That since 1947, except for very few years, Pakistan has lived off IMF programmes is a fact. We have had twenty-four programmes since 1950, roughly averaging one programme every three years.

The problem is not the fragility of the state of the economy. The problem, in fact, lies in weak and unrepresented governments, all the time, that never had the ‘courage’ and ‘strength’ to tell the truth about Pakistan’s real economic situation to the people so that real corrective efforts could be undertaken.

This is happening again. Recently Fitch, a global rating agency, has improved the country’s rating, which is a very commendable sign; however, it does not in any manner provide space for complacency.

Nevertheless, the amateurish people from government and non-government sources are of the view that all economic problems have been solved and Pakistan has adopted a correct trajectory for sustained growth. This mantra has been repeated so many times that now these words do not mean anything for a common Pakistani.

The author considers it is a national responsibility to state that proper facts be brought before the people and the government. In this regard the first step is to see what Fitch has said. It states as under:

“Key Rating Drivers

Fiscal Consolidation, External Stabilisation: The upgrade reflects Fitch’s increased confidence that Pakistan will sustain its recent progress on narrowing budget deficits and implementing structural reforms, supporting its IMF programme performance and funding availability.

We also expect tight economic policy settings to continue to support recovery of international reserves and contain external funding needs, although implementation risks remain and financing needs are still large. Global trade tensions and market volatility could create external pressures, but risks are mitigated by lower oil prices and Pakistan’s low dependence on exports and market financing.

Policy Credibility Gradually Rebuilt: Pakistan and the IMF reached a staff-level agreement in March on the first review of the country’s USD7 billion Extended Fund Facility and a new USD1.3 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility, both set to last until 3Q27.

Pakistan performed well on quantitative performance criteria, particularly on reserve accumulation and the primary surplus, although tax revenue growth fell short of its indicative target. Provincial governments have also legislated increases in agricultural income tax, a key structural benchmark. This follows Pakistan’s strong performance on its previous, more temporary arrangement, which........

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