The trade of our time
Wednesday’s the worst day for an op-ed deadline if you like to write about Wall Street. For some reason, that’s when most of the most consequential data points come out — like the Fed’s interest rate announcement this week, laced with controversy and expectations like never before – and, given the time differential, you can never say for sure what’s going to happen by the time your piece goes to the editor.
Yet the road to this cut (25bp expected) has been so dramatic and Trump’s own antics have given so much more fuel to what a lot of people on planet forex are openly calling “the de-dollarisation drive”, and so much has already happened that would never have happened if a less erratic man ran the world’s biggest economy, that this serves as just the right pivot point for someone fascinated by global financial markets; especially how a lot of people are going to make a lot of money from all the uncertainty that has been so deliberately forced into the system.
So, Trump’s time was the first time a market bloodbath was not offset by a safe-haven surge in the dollar – remember Liberation Day? – the first time this decade that hedged inflows into US securities exceeded unhedged inflows from outside, and also about the first time since China’s been stage managing its currency that the People’s Republic is choosing to strengthen, not weaken, the yuan.
And if you’ve seen enough Wall Street movies, you can almost see those overpaid hedge fund managers salivating at the........
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