Winston Churchill once remarked, “The further back you look, the further forward you are likely to see.” The recent escalation of the trade war amid a disintegrating economic world order is remarkably reminiscent of the pre-World War I era. By the end of the nineteenth century, the global economy was already fracturing.

A wave of retaliatory tariffs—introduced in Germany, France, Italy, and the United States—shattered the liberal trade consensus of the 1800s. As economies became isolated, crises like the Panic of 1873 eventually split the West into economic blocs, which eventually led to the First World War. A century later, as the world’s greatest economies collide, we see a new economic order emerging with competing blocs. As Mark Twain remarked, we may be watching history rhyme once more.

US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs have undermined the multilateral trade order his predecessors had strived to sustain. A blanket 10 percent duty was followed by a 145 percent retaliatory strike against Chinese imports. China fired back with 125 percent tariffs and yuan devaluation. Amid the disruption of global supply chains, Trump gave in to pressure from the US tech lobby, granting tariff exemptions to a few key sectors including smartphones, laptops, and semiconductors.

Meanwhile, countries such as Pakistan only have a 90-day window until the 10% tariff transitions into a 29% one. According to the World Trade Organization, global trade will decline this year by 0.2 percent—possibly up to 1.5 percent if tariff uncertainty spreads beyond the US. These drops were only seen in times of severe crises like 2020 and 2009. The WTO’s mechanisms are paralyzed. Global trade is no longer rules-based; it’s bloc-based.

In an ever-divided world on economic lines, three competing ideologies are emerging. The US is pioneering national capitalism: industrial onshoring, bilateral pressure, and tariff shields. Europe is leaning into technocratic capitalism—rules-based subsidy regimes tied to carbon neutrality, AI regulation, and digital services. China, in contrast, has embraced command capitalism: centralized bailouts, equity stabilization through its “national team,” and subsidized oversupply to counter shocks.

Asia is charting a middle path of pragmatic pluralism; one that hedges diplomacy with realignment. In this game of chess, countries are playing multiple blocs. Several countries like India, Singapore, and South Korea are lowering rates and using targeted diplomacy, hedged reforms, and industrial subsidies to survive the economic turbulence. They are engaging all major powers, experimenting with bilateralism, and absorbing supply chains without ideological rigidity. Pakistan, however, has joined late—and it must catch up quickly.

On April 9, US tariffs on Pakistan surged to 29 percent due to a $2.99 billion trade surplus. That has since reverted to a baseline 10 percent under a 90-day executive pause. But this is more of a countdown than relief; one where Pakistan needs to act strategically. Once the pause expires, tariffs may return—unless Pakistan presents a compelling case for........

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