The cotton crop, often described as “white gold,” remains a central pillar of Pakistan’s agro-economy. As the 2025 monsoon season unfolds, concerns surrounding its effect on cotton production have resurfaced.

The implications are not only significant for domestic supply chains but also for the country’s export performance and broader economic stability. Each year, the same pressing question arises: will the monsoon rains rejuvenate the sector or bring further distress?

Pakistan has set an ambitious target of 12.77 million bales for the 2024–25 cotton season, a necessary goal, given the country’s reliance on cotton as a raw material for its textile exports. Yet the recent heavy and erratic rainfall in key cotton-producing areas of southern Punjab and Sindh has posed a serious challenge to achieving this objective. These rains, while vital in theory, have in practice become unpredictable and often damaging.

Fields in districts like Rahim Yar Khan, Bahawalnagar, and Sanghar have reported waterlogging and crop stress, which threaten both the yield and quality of cotton.

In the 2023–24 season, Pakistan managed to produce around 8.3 million bales, well short of its 11.5 million bale target. The gap was largely filled by costly imports from countries such as the United States, Brazil, and India. This increasing reliance on foreign cotton has strained the national exchequer and added pressure to an already high import bill.

The situation becomes even more alarming when considered in light of the textile sector’s performance, which contributes over USD16 billion in exports annually, with nearly 60 percent dependent on cotton. A further drop in domestic production not only reduces value chain efficiency but also risks pushing textile firms toward production cuts or closure.

Cotton is far more than a raw material; it forms the foundation of Pakistan’s industrial employment, supporting over 40 percent of the industrial workforce and........

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