Since 2019 the three International Monetary Fund (IMF) programmes for Pakistan focused more on primary as opposed to fiscal balance calculated as a percentage of total income.

The logic: unburdened by net interest payments on past borrowings, Pakistan will learn to manage (reduce) budgeted spending against its revenue for long term debt sustainability, macroeconomic stability and rebuilding investor confidence.

This objective does not preclude the fact that net interest payments on past loans would still have to be budgeted and so the primary balance focus is merely an accounting exercise nor does it preclude the need to incur higher domestic/external borrowing to service past debts and to meet the budgeted expenditure priorities that account for over 92 percent of the budget when announced (and more than 95 percent of the budget at the end of a fiscal year as Public Sector Development Programme is mercilessly slashed top achieve a more sustainable budget deficit).

In 2022-23, Pakistan experienced a negative 0.9 percent primary balance as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (both including and excluding grants).

The year was marked by the suspension of the then ongoing IMF programme subsequent to the then Finance Minister Ishaq Dar violating two conditions agreed in the eighth review as he continued to support; (i) intervention in the foreign exchange market to artificially keep the rupee/dollar parity low, and (ii) subsidised electricity for the industrial sector through an unbudgeted allocation of over a 100 billion rupees at a time when over 30 million Pakistanis were sleeping under the open air due to the devastating 2022 floods. For the following year in 2023-24 the IMF extended a nine-month programme loan and set the primary surplus target at 0.4 percent, but by the end of the year estimated it at 0.9 percent (excluding and including grants).

From 2024-25 the Fund in its 17 May 2025 first review documents projected a primary surplus at 2.1 percent (excluding grants) and 2 percent, including grants and set the target excluding and including grants at 1.7........

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