It’s almost impossible to avoid the mania surrounding what artificial intelligence might do to our economy.

Whether it’s the fears of an AI share price bubble, anxiety about robots taking our jobs, or worries about what hordes of AI-linked data centres will do to carbon emissions, AI hype is everywhere.

An estimated $US3 trillion will be spent on data centres in the next three years, much of it to meet AI demand.Credit: Getty Images

These discussions are entirely warranted because the staggering sums of money going into AI tell us that investors are betting this technology will take the world by storm.

Morgan Stanley has estimated US$3 trillion ($4.65 trillion) will be spent on data centres over the next three years to meet rampant demand, including from AI, while chipmaker Nvidia’s market value is larger than the entire economies of some countries.

But putting aside this financial exuberance, the big economic question is: how much might AI help businesses and workers become more productive, thereby making society wealthier as a whole?

It’s impossible to answer this with any certainty, though of course that’s not stopping many people having a crack.

But rather than attempting to peer into the future, some Australian economists have recently made a more useful contribution, by looking at evidence on what we know so far about how businesses are actually using AI, and what history says about major technology changes.

Their findings leave you with the distinct impression we could be waiting a while for “big bang” impacts from AI in the economy, (as opposed to the huge impact the technology is already having on share prices).

What really matters to material standards of living in the long run is productivity – the economy’s output from its labour and capital. It’s easy to see why people think AI will do wonders for productivity one day, but it’s........

© Brisbane Times