China has already won Trump’s impulsive war

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The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. The only vessels making it through are Iranian tankers or cargoes moving on Iran’s say-so and mostly headed for China and India.

Iran is still fighting its guerrilla war of attrition. We are still amid of the greatest global energy shock in history. The world is still missing 14 million barrels a day (b/d) of crude oil and refined products, and a fifth of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply.

Donald Trump’s waiver on sanctioned barrels of Iranian and Russian oil adds no significant volume. Most of the barrels in transit were already part of the normal global supply. The extra “storage on water” covers the global shortfall for another 24 hours at most.

The waivers are chiefly a windfall gain for our enemies. Russia has been selling its crude in Asia at a premium over Brent, earning a $US60 ($86) bonus over mid-February levels. Ditto for Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps.

Physical deliveries of Oman Murban oil or Dubai basket going to Asia are still commanding $US145, far higher than paper futures, and a taste of what may soon be coming to Europe as the last tankers arrive from Suez before the lock-gates close.

The war may be over soon, but its damage will stay with us for years to come

Stephen BartholomeuszSenior business columnist

Senior business columnist

“We are aware of what is happening in the paper oil market, including the firms hired to influence oil futures. We also see the broader jawboning campaign,” Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament, posted on X.

“But let’s see if they can turn that into ‘actual fuel’ at the pump – or maybe even print gas molecules!”

The Gulf states are still having to “shut in” a tenth of global oil production because they have run out of storage. The structural damage is still rising in a non-linear fashion as each week passes.

It will take months for Iraq to revive its oil fields even if the war ends today. It will take Qatar three to five years to repair the world’s biggest LNG facility at Ras Laffan in Doha. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says 40 energy assets have been “severely or very severely........

© Brisbane Times