Whether President Donald Trump wins the Third Gulf War will depend a lot on whether the Pentagon can effectively reopen the Strait of Hormuz for oil shipping, and soon. The American military doesn’t have weeks to do so — only days.

The waterway is the world’s most important oil chokepoint, transporting about 20% of the world’s crude and refined petroleum products. Four days into the war, the strait, which consists of two narrow lanes deep enough for the largest oil tankers, is largely closed to tanker traffic. Since the conflict erupted, only a handful of small- and medium-sized tankers have crossed it, typically at night and with their location transponders, called AIS, switched off. But the large oil tankers that are the workhorse of oil shipping are avoiding it.

© Bloomberg