In a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape, the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), or Middle Corridor, as it is also known, is gaining attention as a potential trade bridge between Europe and Asia, with European Union (EU) chief Ursula von der Leyen calling the opening of Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan borders a “game changer” for regional connectivity earlier this month.

The EU has announced a 12 billion euro investment package to enhance transport, energy, and digital infrastructure in Central Asia. Ursula von der Leyen has also declared Russia an unreliable partner, highlighting concerns over Western goods being rerouted to Russia via Central Asia, and called on Central Asian nations to strengthen collaboration in enforcing sanctions. Thus, it is quite clear the West hopes to have Turkey as an alternative and a kind of counterweight to Moscow.

However, experts like American scholar Frederick Starr (chairman of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute) in the past have argued the Middle Corridor can be no substitute for maritime routes due to capacity constraints. In addition, Turkey’s push to expand influence through the Organization of Turkic States, as noted by analyst Aydin Sezer (former Turkish trade representative to Russia), risks escalating tensions in Russia’s backyard, complicating the Corridor’s prospects.

Since the Russo-Ukrainian conflict broke out in February 2014, the TITR, or Middle Corridor (via the Caspian Sea, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey) has been touted by some as a viable alternative to the Northern Corridor through Russia. Cargo traffic along this route, connecting Southeast Asia and China to Europe via Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey, reached 3.2 million tons in 2022, driven by Western sanctions that partially disrupted the Northern route.

Turkey has been seeking to position itself as a central hub, and has been........

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