In yet another chapter of its reckless foreign policy, the United States appears poised to ignite fresh chaos in the Horn of Africa. Washington’s latest gambit involves a potential quid pro quo deal with Somaliland, a self-declared independent region of Somalia, offering recognition of its sovereignty in exchange for a naval base on the strategic Red Sea coast. Meanwhile, Somaliland’s leadership has dangled the prospect of “absorbing” displaced Gaza residents—a move that reeks of opportunism cloaked as humanitarianism.

Not to be outdone, Somalian federal government authorities in Mogadishu have countered with its own offer, promising the U.S. “exclusive operational control” over strategic ports and airbases along the Gulf of Aden. The catch? These assets, including the prized Berbera port, lie in disputed territories beyond Mogadishu’s de facto control, lying in fact firmly in Somaliland’s hands. Once again, American foreign policy reveals its penchant for meddling in fragile regions, stoking division, and courting conflict—all with a familiar Israeli shadow lurking in the background.

This unfolding drama bears the hallmarks of a playbook Washington has deployed before, most notably in the Western Sahara, where U.S. recognition of Moroccan sovereignty in 2020—brokered as another quid pro quo deal in the context of the Abraham Accords—traded territorial legitimacy for strategic alignment with Israel. This took place during Donald Trump’s first term. The parallels are striking: a contested region, a superpower dangling recognition as bait, and a broader agenda that prioritizes military footholds over stability.

In the Horn of Africa, the stakes are no less volatile. Somaliland, autonomous since 1991 but unrecognized internationally, has long sought legitimacy, while Somalia’s federal government clings to its claim over the breakaway territory.

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