As European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen prepares to deliver her annual State of the Union address, she faces a moment of extraordinary pressure. The European Union is once again caught in the crossfire of US President Donald Trump’s unpredictable trade wars. Despite the handshake deal struck in July, intended to restore stability and predictability, Trump has already escalated threats on social media against Europe, signaling that the transatlantic relationship remains fragile and volatile.

At stake is far more than the terms of trade: Europe’s sovereignty, credibility as a global economic power, and even the durability of its democratic institutions. If Brussels continues to miscalculate, it risks reducing the EU to little more than a bystander in the global economic order.

When von der Leyen and Trump reached their provisional trade agreement in Scotland, European officials hoped that the crisis had been contained. Yet optimism evaporated within days. Trump returned to his familiar playbook of confrontation, threatening new tariffs, restrictions on semiconductor exports, and retaliation against the EU’s $3.5 billion fine against Google for anti-competitive practices.

This cycle of handshake agreements followed by renewed threats is not new. Trump thrives on constant escalation, portraying every negotiation as a zero-sum battle in which he must emerge as the victor. The EU’s failure to anticipate this strategy has left it vulnerable. Instead of projecting strength, it has often........

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