In the past few days, Syria’s coastal region, long considered a stronghold of the Alawite sect, has witnessed an eruption of violence that has left more than 600 dead – a grim toll that speaks volumes about the gravity of the conflict. The clashes between Sunni Muslim gunmen loyal to the newly established government and Alawite communities that remain loyal to the ousted Assad regime have reignited the sectarian fault lines that have plagued Syria for years. But what seems like a clash between local factions is, in reality, a complex interplay of internal and external forces – one that is shaping the future of Syria in profound ways.

This violence is not merely a consequence of the country’s internal divisions but also a sign of the deeper struggles for influence over Syria’s post-Assad future. The unrest presents an existential challenge to the interim government under Ahmad Al-Sharaa, highlighting the tenuousness of the state’s control in the region. While the interim government is striving to establish its authority and legitimacy, its capacity to navigate these internal divisions is being tested. The role of external actors, particularly Iran, has been largely overlooked but should not be underestimated. In fact, Iran’s shadow looms large over the recent violence, raising questions about the extent of its involvement in exacerbating these sectarian tensions to achieve its own regional ambitions.

Sectarian divisions in Syria are deeply rooted in history. The ruling Assad family, members of the Alawite sect, have long been at odds with the majority Sunni population. For decades, the Alawite minority has dominated the government, military, and intelligence apparatus, while Sunnis have often felt marginalized. The Syrian Civil War, which erupted in 2011, further exacerbated these tensions. Iran played a significant role in propping up the Assad regime, providing financial, military, and intelligence support to........

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