In global strategy and policymaking, a recurring flaw has emerged: an overreliance on determinism and historicism. Across countries, even the most seasoned experts have attempted to forecast future behaviour primarily from past patterns, often underestimating the complexities of human agency. The Trump era provides a stark example of how this approach can mislead.

During Donald Trump’s first term, strategic experts and analysts worldwide – including in India – acknowledged his unpredictable personality and transactional approach to diplomacy. Yet, after he won the elections for a second presidential term in 2020, many analysts relied almost entirely on his first-term behaviour to predict his future policies, overestimating the value of past patterns. Even if Trump were considered a rational actor, this reliance on historicism was misguided, as history unfolds from the known to the unknown, and the trajectory of political behaviour cannot be fully anticipated. In Trump’s case, his transactional style further amplified the risk of such assumptions, making historicist predictions particularly unreliable.

Observing his personal warmth toward Prime Minister Modi – evident in their joint appearances at the “Howdy Modi” and “Namaste Trump” events – his........

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