Lebanon stands on a precipice. The warning issued by US Ambassador Tom Barrack during his recent trip to Beirut was blunt and urgent: the region is accelerating toward change, and Lebanon risks being left behind. Barrack’s words struck a nerve, revealing the country’s central, unresolved dilemma – the disarmament of Hezbollah – and the growing international impatience with Beirut’s slow response.

At the heart of Lebanon’s stagnation lies Hezbollah’s continued armed presence, which has long prevented the consolidation of state authority and the country’s reintegration into the regional and international order. Despite the promising emergence of a new political leadership under President Joseph Aoun and the hopes stirred by a US- and French-brokered ceasefire agreement with Israel, Lebanon’s window for meaningful action is rapidly closing. The November 2023 ceasefire was not simply a temporary halt in fighting – it was intended as a turning point, a comprehensive roadmap for peace and sovereignty.

The agreement, supported by UN Security Council Resolutions 1701 and 1559, rests on two foundational pillars. First, the Lebanese state must reassert a monopoly over armed force, ending Hezbollah’s military autonomy. Second, through diplomacy and statecraft, Lebanon must work to secure Israel’s full withdrawal from contested territories and put a definitive end to the cycle of strikes that has devastated its economy and population centers.

Lebanon’s initial steps have been encouraging. The government has reportedly dismantled 80 to 90 percent of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure in southern Lebanon, a region that has served as the primary flashpoint for Israeli-Lebanese hostilities for nearly two decades. However, Israeli airstrikes have persisted, a clear signal that piecemeal efforts........

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